That level represents the average investor’s cost basis, said James Check.
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Where’sthebottomforbitcoin(BTC)?
Whileacknowledgingit’spossiblethatlevelhasalreadybeenhit,on-chainanalystJamesChecksuggestedatruebottommaynotbeinplaceuntilafterbitcoinsuffersatruecapitulationevent.
Thatwouldlikelyrequireadeclinetothe$65,000area,saidCheck,callingitthe“truemarketmean,”i.e.,theaveragecostbasisforactiveinvestors.
AtthatpointaccordingtoCheck,whospokeontheTFTCpodcast,theaverageinvestormaybegintofeelthepressureofunrealizedlosses.Evenlong-termholders,includingthosewhohaveheldbitcoinforfiveyears,couldfindthemselvesunderwater.Interestingly,thispricelevelalignscloselywithMichaelSaylor’sStrategy,whichhasasimilarcostbasisofaround$67,500.
Wheredoescapitulationtakethemarket?WhileCheckexpectssizabledeclinesfromthe$65,000area,heseesstrongsupportinthe$49,000-$50,000range,thosepricesrepresentingthelaunchoftheETFsin2024aswellasa$1trillionmarketcapforbitcoin.Adroptoaslowas$40,000seemsunlikely
